Thailand Will Become a Developed Country in ... 123 Years!

Nowadays, Thailand has been classified as a upper middle income country.

Thailand's GDP per capita is $5,779 (as of 2013).

Meanwhile high income level threshold is $12,735.

If we give that high income level threshold is constant and
GDP per capita growth rate is constant at 3 percent per year (according to recent data),

we can write the equation below ..

[Note that: Year 1: GDP per capita = $5,779 * 103% = $5,779 * 1.03
Year 2: GDP per capita = [$5,779 * 1.03]*1.03 = $5,779 * (1.03)^2
.
.
Year x: GDP per capita = $5,779 * (1.03)^x]

$5,779 * (1.03)^x = $12,735 --- (1)

Solve x, x = 27 years

But, in fact, high income level threshold which is determined by World Bank

is changed every years.

In 2015, high income countries must have GDP per capita above $12,735,

while in 1987, it was at $6,000.

Then we can calculate the growth rate of the threshold which is 2.34 percent per year.

Therefore, the approximate equation should be..

$5,779 * (1.03)^x = 12735 * (1.0234)^x --- (2)

Solve x, x = 123 years

Thus, according to the second equation, Thailand will become a high income country, or so called a developed country, in 2139.

However, it is possible that Thailand will grow at higher rate
which will reduce time to become a high income country.

The beneath graphs were plotted at the different rate of GDP per capita growth.

Scenario I: Thailand grows at 3 percent per year.

Result: Thailand will become a developed country in 123 years.

Scenario I

Scenario II: Thailand grows at 5 percent per year.

Result: Thailand will become a developed country in 31 years.

Scenario II

Scenario III: Thailand grows at 7 percent per year.

Result: Thailand will become a developed country in 17 years.

Scenario III

Explanation

x axis represents time (years).

y axis represents money ($).

Red line is World Bank's high income countries threshold.

Blue line is GDP per capita of Thailand.

Point of intersection between red line and blue line is a point when Thailand will achieve its status of a developed country.

*This blog is contained some personal view of the expectation. Please use your discretion.